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Infectious disease control using contact tracing in random and scale-free networks

机译:在无标度和无标度网络中使用接触跟踪进行传染病控制

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摘要

Contact tracing aims to identify and isolate individuals that have been in contact with infectious individuals. The efficacy of contact tracing and the hierarchy of traced nodes—nodes with higher degree traced first—is investigated and compared on random and scale-free (SF) networks with the same number of nodes N and average connection K. For values of the transmission rate larger than a threshold, the final epidemic size on SF networks is smaller than that on corresponding random networks. While in random networks new infectious and traced nodes from all classes have similar average degrees, in SF networks the average degree of nodes that are in more advanced stages of the disease is higher at any given time. On SF networks tracing removes possible sources of infection with high average degree. However a higher tracing effort is required to control the epidemic than on corresponding random networks due to the high initial velocity of spread towards the highly connected nodes. An increased latency period fails to significantly improve contact tracing efficacy. Contact tracing has a limited effect if the removal rate of susceptible nodes is relatively high, due to the fast local depletion of susceptible nodes.
机译:接触者追踪旨在识别和隔离与传染性个体接触过的个体。在具有相同数目的节点N和平均连接数K的随机和无标度(SF)网络上,研究并比较了接触跟踪和被跟踪节点的层次结构(首先跟踪的节点较高)的功效。如果SF网络的流行率大于某个阈值,则其最终流行规模将小于相应随机网络的最终流行规模。在随机网络中,来自所有类别的新感染和追踪节点的平均程度相似,而在SF网络中,处于疾病晚期的节点的平均程度在任何给定时间都更高。在SF网络上,跟踪以较高的平均程度消除了可能的感染源。但是,由于朝着高度连接的节点扩展的初始速度很高,因此控制流行病所需的追踪工作要比相应的随机网络多。等待时间的增加无法显着提高联系人跟踪的效率。如果由于敏感节点的快速局部耗尽,如果敏感节点的删除率相对较高,则接触跟踪的效果有限。

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